![]() “In 2006 there was a similar burn scar in the Catalina Mountains and in Sabino Canyon there was a lot of damage from heavy rain. Heavy rainfall runs off burn scars easily because the soil, once burned, becomes hydrophobic – unable to absorb water – and the vegetation that typically holds soil in place is destroyed. There is the potential for some flash flooding along those washes and rivers,” Howlett said. “The Bighorn Fire near Tucson – we are going to be watching that very closely for any heavy rainfall there as we have concerns downstream from that. ![]() Wildfires have erupted across the globe, scorching places that rarely burned before Photographer: David Odisho/Bloomberg via Getty Images David Odisho/Bloomberg/Getty Images California will be on edge through the weekend as gusty, erratic winds and the threat of dry lightning raise the risk of wildfires in a region parched by drought. Trees burn along Highway 89 during the Tamarack Fire in Markleeville, California, U.S., on Saturday, July 17, 2021. The record 2020 wildfire season also left its mark with a 119,978-acre scar on the Tucson foothills. Numerous fires have ravaged the state in 2021, with two of the largest fires in Arizona history scorching thousands of acres outside of Phoenix. The inundating rain fell on areas with saturated soil from the rainfall earlier in the month, as well as earth seared by wildfire. “During this five-day period, rainfall totals ranged between 5 to 11 inches in the Catalina and Rincon Mountains and from 1 to 6 inches in the valley with many locations receiving over 50% of their average annual rainfall.” In late July, moisture from Tropical Storm Emilia created a period of intense rainfall in eastern Pima County starting on July 27 and ending on July 31, 2006,” according to the Pima County event summary. “Rainfall in mid-July created saturated soil conditions in the upper watersheds especially the Rillito-Tanque Verde-Pantano watershed. Soils during the 2006 rain event were in similar condition. ![]() Tucson has recorded 1.76 inches of rain since the beginning of the month, 0.4 inches above the average. July has already brought plenty of monsoonal moisture to the region. #azwx 9/end /MHKmmliviT- NWS Tucson July 22, 2021 We're hopeful it won't be that bad this time but the potential is there for a high impact event. ![]() This period had the most significant flooding event of the 21st century across SE AZ. “But we’ve had a lot of rainfall so far throughout July and the soils are fairly saturated, and to have another big rainfall event would certainly increase our concern for flooding across the area.”įinally, the meteorology of this event is somewhat reminiscent of late July 2006. Back then there was a tropical system that pushed a lot of moisture up to our area,” Howlett said. It’s not an exact match and no two weather scenarios are going to be the same. “The overall weather pattern was very similar to what models are predicting for this weekend. The NWS in Tucson is likening the weather pattern setup this weekend to that of the 2006 rain event that caused widespread flooding and damage to areas of Tucson – in part due to a large burn scar in the area. “Normally dry stream beds can instantaneously turn into torrents of fast-moving water, especially below burn scars,” CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said. When heavy rain falls in a brief period during the stronger thunderstorms, flash flooding can occur extremely quickly. Some areas of Arizona could see over five inches of rainfall through the end of the weekend.
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